Muchomota

Bob and Uncle Tau: The Ocean

A zero-mean lottery can’t take your money. A stake you never resized can.

Nov 14 • FelixD

You don't know your ROI. Size your bankroll anyway

Managing your bankroll is a solved problem · video 5 of 16

Nov 10 • FelixD

Swapping with 20 winners turns a −$25 seat into +$26

Managing your bankroll is a solved problem · video 4 of 16

Nov 6 • FelixD

Selling, and why selling below value can be right

Managing your bankroll is a solved problem · video 3 of 16

Nov 3 • FelixD

October 2026

Kelly: why it sometimes says "not at this bankroll"

Managing your bankroll is a solved problem · video 2 of 16

Oct 30 • FelixD

"Maximise EV" is the wrong advice

Managing your bankroll is a solved problem · video 1 of 16

Oct 27 • FelixD

April 2026

Bob and Uncle Tau: The Two Layers (Part 2 of 2) — More Floors

Previously in Part 1: Bob had been reading Diaconis-Ethier 2022 — the paper where ICM disagrees with gambler’s-ruin elimination probabilities by a…

Apr 22 • FelixD

The Two Layers (Part 1 of 2)

In which Bob tries to figure out whether a paper by Persi Diaconis means ICM is wrong, and Uncle Tau explains that the question itself is a category…

Apr 20 • FelixD

March 2026

The Roman Extraction

Date: March 2026 Location: Helsinki, Finland — Sam’s Apartment Status: Sam is free.

Mar 23 • FelixD

5

January 2026

The Mathematics of the Professional Poker Tourist

Date: Jan 30, 2026

Jan 30 • FelixD

3

Notebooklm this is not even terrible.

So this is a short Post writing without the help of the soon all encompassing robot army i justed wanted to point out the input to this is a simple well…

Jan 20 • FelixD

4

1

6:44

El Combo

Date: June 1, 2026

Jan 5 • FelixD

5